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Global food retail environments are increasingly dominated by large chains and linked to the rising prevalence of obesity
Retail food environments influence food purchasing and dietary patterns. A global analysis of the food retail landscape allowing comparisons across geographical regions is therefore needed to tackle diet-related non-communicable diseases. Here we examine trends in retail food environments from 2009 to 2023 across 97 countries, exploring associations with changes in obesity prevalence. Increases were observed in the density of chain outlets, grocery sales from chain retailers, unhealthy food sales per capita and digital grocery sales; non-chain outlet density and the ratio of non-chain to chain outlets declined over time. South Asia and low- and middle-income countries overall experienced the most rapid transformation. Changes in retail environments and the prevalence of obesity were found to be positively correlated. As retail environments become increasingly digital and dominated by large chains, important implications for diets and health should be expected, particularly in lower-income countries.
Bayesian p-curve mixture models as a tool to dissociate effect size and effect prevalence
Much research in the behavioral sciences aims to characterize the “typical” person. A statistically significant group-averaged effect size is often interpreted as evidence that the typical person shows an effect, but that is only true under certain distributional assumptions for which explicit evidence is rarely presented. Mean effect size varies with both within-participant effect size and population prevalence (proportion of population showing effect). Few studies consider how prevalence affects mean effect size estimates and existing estimators of prevalence are, conversely, confounded by uncertainty about effect size. We introduce a widely applicable Bayesian method, the p-curve mixture model, that jointly estimates prevalence and effect size by probabilistically clustering participant-level data based on their likelihood under a null distribution. Our approach, for which we provide a software tool, outperforms existing prevalence estimation methods when effect size is uncertain and is sensitive to differences in prevalence or effect size across groups or conditions.
A reform of value-added taxes on foods can have health, environmental and economic benefits in Europe
Fiscal policies can provide important incentives for encouraging the dietary changes needed to achieve global policy targets. Across Europe, the foods relevant to health and the environment often incur reduced but non-zero value-added tax (VAT) rates at about half the maximum rates, which allows for providing both incentives and disincentives. Integrating economic, health and environmental modelling, we show that reforming VAT rates on foods, including increasing rates on meat and dairy, and reducing VAT rates on fruits and vegetables can improve diets and result in health, environmental and economic benefits in most European countries. The health improvements were primarily driven by reductions in VAT rates on fruits and vegetables, whereas most of the environmental and revenue benefits were driven by increased rates on meat and dairy. Our findings suggest that differentiating VAT rates based on health and environmental considerations can support changes towards healthier and more sustainable diets in Europe.
High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countries
Anemia, a severe condition among children associated with adverse health effects such as impaired growth, limited physical and cognitive development, and increased mortality risk, remains widespread, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study combines Demographic and Health Surveys data with remotely sensed climate, demographic, environmental, and geo-spatial information, creating a data set comprising about 750,000 observations on childhood anemia from 37 countries. It is used to provide high-resolution spatio-temporal estimates of all forms of childhood anemia between 2005 and 2020.
Differences between the normal and perceived appropriate portion sizes of discretionary foods
There are limited data on the amount of discretionary foods that people normally consume and consider as appropriate at one eating occasion. This study aimed to provide an overview of the range and assess differences of the ‘normal portion size’ and ‘perceived appropriate portion size’ of energy-dense nutrient-poor discretionary foods among consumers aged 18–65 years.
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