Are participant characteristics from ISCOLE study sites comparable to the rest of their country?
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Much research in the behavioral sciences aims to characterize the “typical” person. A statistically significant group-averaged effect size is often interpreted as evidence that the typical person shows an effect, but that is only true under certain distributional assumptions for which explicit evidence is rarely presented. Mean effect size varies with both within-participant effect size and population prevalence (proportion of population showing effect). Few studies consider how prevalence affects mean effect size estimates and existing estimators of prevalence are, conversely, confounded by uncertainty about effect size. We introduce a widely applicable Bayesian method, the p-curve mixture model, that jointly estimates prevalence and effect size by probabilistically clustering participant-level data based on their likelihood under a null distribution. Our approach, for which we provide a software tool, outperforms existing prevalence estimation methods when effect size is uncertain and is sensitive to differences in prevalence or effect size across groups or conditions.
Trust in scientists and their role in society across 68 countries
Science is crucial for evidence-based decision-making. Public trust in scientists can help decision makers act on the basis of the best available evidence, especially during crises. However, in recent years the epistemic authority of science has been challenged, causing concerns about low public trust in scientists. We interrogated these concerns with a preregistered 68-country survey of 71,922 respondents and found that in most countries, most people trust scientists and agree that scientists should engage more in society and policymaking. We found variations between and within countries, which we explain with individual- and country-level variables, including political orientation. While there is no widespread lack of trust in scientists, we cannot discount the concern that lack of trust in scientists by even a small minority may affect considerations of scientific evidence in policymaking. These findings have implications for scientists and policymakers seeking to maintain and increase trust in scientists.
Bank lending and environmental quality in Gulf Cooperation Council countries
To achieve economies with net-zero carbon emissions, it is essential to develop a robust green financial intermediary channel. This study seeks empirical evidence on how domestic bank lending to sovereign and private sectors in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries impacts carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions. We employ PMG-ARDL model to panel data comprising six countries in GCC over twenty years for carbon dioxide emissions and nineteen years for greenhouse gas emissions. Our findings reveal a long-term positive impact of both bank lending variables on carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, lending to the government shows a negative short-term effect on greenhouse gas emissions. The cross-country results demonstrate the presence of a long-run effect of explanatory variables on both types of emissions, except for greenhouse gas in Saudi Arabia. The sort-term impact of the explanatory variables on carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions is quite diverse. Not only do these effects differ across countries, but some variables have opposing effects on the two types of emissions within a single country. The findings of this study present a new perspective for GCC economies: neglecting total greenhouse gas emissions and concentrating solely on carbon dioxide emissions means missing critical information for devising effective strategies to combat threats of environmental degradation and achieve net-zero goals.
What makes a man unmanly? The global concept of ‘unmanliness’
This paper presents the findings of a multi-national study that led to the development of a new analytical framework in masculinity research—the Global Concept of ‘Unmanliness’ (GCU). Drawing on three key theories—hegemonic masculinity, precarious manhood and masculinity threat, and emasculation—we conducted an innovative study across 15 countries (selected from an initial pool of 62) to examine cultural perceptions of ‘unmanliness.’ Participants provided open-ended responses to identify traits and behaviors considered unmanly within their cultural contexts. By analyzing common themes expressed by young men, we propose the Global Concept of ‘Unmanliness’ as a framework for understanding how societies define and enforce masculinity norms. Furthermore, comparing these findings with the Global Gender Gap Index (GGGI) revealed a key distinction in how ‘unmanliness’ is characterized across different levels of gender emancipation. In countries with high GGGI rankings (e.g., Norway, Ireland, Germany), ‘unmanliness’ is more often associated with physical traits and behaviors linked to femininity (e.g., clothing, makeup). Conversely, in countries with low GGGI rankings (e.g., Pakistan, Morocco, Nigeria), it is more commonly defined by acts such as violence against women. Our study highlights how cultural and structural gender dynamics shape the boundaries of masculinity and offers a new lens for cross-cultural research on gender norms.
Global food retail environments are increasingly dominated by large chains and linked to the rising prevalence of obesity
Retail food environments influence food purchasing and dietary patterns. A global analysis of the food retail landscape allowing comparisons across geographical regions is therefore needed to tackle diet-related non-communicable diseases. Here we examine trends in retail food environments from 2009 to 2023 across 97 countries, exploring associations with changes in obesity prevalence. Increases were observed in the density of chain outlets, grocery sales from chain retailers, unhealthy food sales per capita and digital grocery sales; non-chain outlet density and the ratio of non-chain to chain outlets declined over time. South Asia and low- and middle-income countries overall experienced the most rapid transformation. Changes in retail environments and the prevalence of obesity were found to be positively correlated. As retail environments become increasingly digital and dominated by large chains, important implications for diets and health should be expected, particularly in lower-income countries.
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