Author Correction: Compound dry-hot-fire events connecting Central and Southeastern South America: an unapparent and deadly ripple effect
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Previous research has examined individual factors contributing to wildfire risk, but the compounding effects of these factors remain underexplored. Here, we introduce the “Integrated Human-centric Wildfire Risk Index (IHWRI)” to quantify the compounding effects of fire-weather intensification and anthropogenic factors—including ignitions and human settlement into wildland—on wildfire risk. While climatic trends increased the frequency of high-risk fire-weather by 2.5-fold, the combination of this trend with wildland-urban interface expansion led to a 4.1-fold increase in the frequency of conditions conducive to extreme-impact wildfires from 1990 to 2022 across California. More than three-quarters of extreme-impact wildfires—defined as the top 20 largest, most destructive, or deadliest events on record—originated within 1 km from the wildland-urban interface. The deadliest and most destructive wildfires—90% of which were human-caused—primarily occurred in the fall, while the largest wildfires—56% of which were human-caused—mostly took place in the summer. By integrating human activity and climate change impacts, we provide a holistic understanding of human-centric wildfire risk, crucial for policy development.
Coexistence and interplay of pseudomagnetism and flexoelectricity in few-layer rippled graphene
The mechanical strain has been widely exploited as an effective knob to induce various intriguing phenomena in two-dimensional materials, notably the emergence of pseudomagnetism and flexoelectricity. Here, using tight-binding model calculations supplemented with selective crosschecks within first-principles theory, we present the first demonstration of coexisting pseudo magnetism and flexoelectricity in both rippled graphene monolayer and bilayer and further reveal the interplay of the strain-induced phenomena. For a rippled monolayer, lattice distortion induces the emergence of a synchronously modulated pseudomagnetic field, which in turn breaks the charge neutrality of the sublattices, as manifested by the concomitant presence of in-plane flexoelectricity. For a rippled bilayer, pseudomagnetism substantially enhances in some regions of the bottom layer and disappears in the corresponding regions of the top layer due to pronounced interlayer coupling, or vice versa, accompanied by simultaneous in-plane and out-of-plane polarizations with opposite directions. Collectively, these findings offer new opportunities for developing graphene-based multiferroic devices.
Socially vulnerable communities face disproportionate exposure and susceptibility to U.S. wildfire and prescribed burn smoke
While air pollution from most U.S. sources has decreased, emissions from wildland fires have risen. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to estimate that wildfire and prescribed burn smoke caused $200 billion in health damages in 2017, associated with 20,000 premature deaths. Nearly half of this damage came from wildfires, predominantly in the West, with the remainder from prescribed burns, mostly in the Southeast. Our analysis reveals positive correlations between smoke exposure and various social vulnerability measures; however, when also considering smoke susceptibility, these disparities are systematically influenced by age. Senior citizens, who are disproportionately White, represented 16% of the population but incurred 75% of the damages. Nonetheless, within most age groups, Native American and Black communities experienced the greatest damages per capita. Our work highlights the extraordinary and disproportionate effects of the growing threat of fire smoke and calls for targeted, equitable policy solutions for a healthier future.
Multivariate compound events drive historical floods and associated losses along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts
Compound flooding events are a threat to many coastal regions and can have widespread socio-economic implications. However, their frequency of occurrence, underlying flood drivers, and direct link to past socio-economic losses are largely unknown despite being key to supporting risk and adaptation assessments. Here, we present an impact-based analysis of compound flooding for 203 coastal counties along the U.S. Gulf and East coasts by combining data from multiple flood drivers and socio-economic loss information from 1980 to 2018. We find that ~80% of all flood events recorded in our study area were compound rather than univariate. In addition, we show that historical compound flooding events in most counties were driven by more than two flood drivers (hydrological, meteorological, and/or oceanographic) and distinct spatial clusters exist that exhibit variability in the underlying driver of compound flood events. Furthermore, we find that in more than 80% of the counties, over 80% of recorded property and crop losses were linked to compound flooding. Nearly 80% of counties have a higher median loss from compound than univariate events. For these counties, the median property loss is over 26 times greater, and the median crop loss is over 76 times greater for compound events on average. Our analysis overcomes some of the limitations of previous compound-event studies based on pre-defined flood drivers and offers new insights into the complex relationship between hazards and associated socio-economic impacts.
Enhancing seasonal fire predictions with hybrid dynamical and random forest models
This study presents an innovative approach to forecasting seasonal anomalies in burned areas (BA) by integrating process-based seasonal prediction and a random forest climate-fire model. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), derived from observed precipitation, allows us to predict burned area anomalies a month before the start of the target fire season in ~68% of the burnable area. When utilizing seasonal predictions, the system maintains skillful results in ~46% of the burnable area. Given the availability of observational and forecast data in near-real-time, a prototype operational forecast for burned areas could be provided to enhance climate services.
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