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ENSO’s impact on linear and nonlinear predictability of Antarctic sea ice

While the influence of ENSO on Antarctic sea ice variability is well-known, its role in sea ice predictability, both linear and nonlinear, remains unexplored. This study utilizes deep learning models to quantify ENSO’s impact on Antarctic sea ice predictability. We find that ENSO events exert cross-timescale influences on sea ice’s subseasonal linear and nonlinear predictability. Within a 3-week lead time, ice persistence is the primary source of predictability. Beyond this period, ENSO becomes a key source of Antarctic sea ice predictability, with El Niño enhancing ice linear predictability more than La Niña. Specifically, El Niño improves ice linear predictability by 25.6%, 19.6%, and 30.4% in the A-B Sea, Ross Sea, and Indian Ocean, respectively, at an 8-week lead time. La Niña mainly enhances ice nonlinear predictability, particularly in the Ross Sea. We demonstrate that ENSO provides additional sources for Antarctic sea ice predictability primarily through generating more extensive ice anomalies. These insights deepen our understanding of sea ice predictability and are crucial for advancing forecasting models.

Perspectives on transport pathways of microplastics across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

This perspective will focus for the first time on the occurrence and potential transport pathways of MPs within the MENA region. The delivery mechanism of MPs and characteristics of ocean currents and air patterns are discussed in detail within the Arabian Gulf -Gulf of Oman complex, the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden complex, the southern Arabian margin, and non-MENA region to the south, as well as the Mediterranean Sea respectively. Significant variable dissemination and seasonal delivery across different locations in the MENA regions are revealed from this analysis. The review provides guidance for researchers and government authorities in conducting MPs research and proposing actionable measures to mitigate risks associated with chemical and biological contamination.

An approach to assessing tsunami risk to the global port network under rising sea levels

Seaports are vulnerable to extreme sea level events. Beyond physical damage, any port inoperability affects trade flows in and out of the affected port and disrupts shipping routes connected to it, which then propagates throughout the port network. Here, we propose an approach to assessing tsunami risk to ports and the global port network. We leverage on the topological properties of the global liner shipping network and centrality measures to quantify the potential impacts of a Manila Trench earthquake-tsunami under both present and future sea levels. We find that a Manila Trench tsunami could potentially damage up to 11 ports at present-day conditions and 15 ports under rising sea levels. Port closure could exceed 200 days and cause greater disruption to shipping routes than historical tsunami events. We also find that sea level rise is likely to result in uneven changes in tsunami heights spatially and hence, uneven impacts on the global port network.

Feedback effect of the size of mineral particles on the molecular mechanisms employed by Caballeronia mineralivorans PML1(12) to weather minerals

Mineral dissolution by bacteria is thought to depend on mineral properties, solution chemistry, and the carbon sources metabolized. To investigate whether mineral particle size could impact the effectiveness of weathering and the molecular mechanisms employed by bacteria, the strain Caballeronia mineralivorans PML1(12) was considered. Through microcosm and kinetic experiments, we quantified changes in biotite dissolution, bacterial growth, siderophore biosynthesis, and acidification. The use of different solution chemistries, carbon sources, and particle sizes (from <20 to 500 µm) allowed us to decipher the relative role of acidification- and chelation-driven mineral weathering by bacteria. Results revealed a faster dissolution for smaller particles (<100 µm) that strongly affected both solution chemistry and bacterial physiology, while larger particles (>100 µm) showed a slower and steady dissolution with minimal impact on bacterial processes. These findings underscore the influence and feedback effects of particle size on the dynamics of dissolution and the mechanisms employed by bacteria.

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