Biomass exclusion must be weighed against benefits of carbon supply in European energy system

To meet climate targets, net-negative emissions in the energy system are likely necessary, with direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and utilization or storage seen as important technology options. While bioenergy can be associated with both positive and negative environmental, social and economic effects, concerns about negative impacts have led the European Union to cap biofuels from food and feed crops and to increasingly emphasize the use of waste and residue resources. Further policy development needs to be informed about intersectoral competition and effective use of biomass resources alongside emerging options such as direct air capture, low-carbon electrolysis and e-fuels.

Excluding biomass increases energy system costs by ~20% under stringent emissions targets (Fig. 1), similar to excluding wind power or electrolytic hydrogen, and the main value in the European energy system is the provision of carbon rather than energy. How biomass is used is less critical if carbon is captured to provide feedstock for fuels and chemicals and enable negative emissions. However, advanced biofuels and chemicals gain importance if the deployment of carbon capture, variable renewables or electrolytic hydrogen is slow. Biomass remains cost-effective even when associated with some upstream emissions, and the value of biomass and carbon capture and utilization increases significantly as fossil fuels are phased out. Policymakers need to balance the risk-mitigating benefits of limiting the use of biomass for energy with its role in providing renewable carbon to meet emission targets. This must be weighed against uncertainties about the possible scale-up pace of direct air capture, variable renewables, electrolytic hydrogen and carbon capture and storage.

Solid biomass usage in 2021 is shown and is similar to the assumed medium domestic residue potential, in contrast to the high potential, both from the JRC ENSPRESO database. Total bioenergy in 2021 includes biomass residues and agricultural crops. Figure adapted from M. Millinger et al. Nat. Energy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01693-6 (2025); Springer Nature Ltd.

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The study investigates the use of biomass in the European energy system by exploring a wide range of technology mixes with similar costs, in scenarios that adhere to stringent emissions targets. We combine a rich portfolio of bioenergy technology options with a state-of-the-art sector-coupled energy system model employing a high spatial and temporal resolution. This allows us to show competition and synergies between biomass options on the one hand, and variable renewables, electrolytic hydrogen, e-fuels and direct air capture on the other. The analysis of near-optimal solutions avoids the common focus on least-cost results, and thus provides a more nuanced picture of the importance of individual biomass usage options. We also use metrics from feasibility studies to put the penetration of variable renewables and electrolysers into context and assess the role of biomass at lower growth rates for solar photovoltaics, wind power and electrolytic hydrogen.