Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth
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Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes
Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food crop production. Analyses of future potential food crop diversity have been limited to a small number of crops. Here we project geographical shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops under 1.5–4 °C global warming and assess their impact on current crop production and potential food crop diversity across global croplands. We found that in low-latitude regions, 10–31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche even under 2 °C global warming, increasing to 20–48% under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% (+2 °C) and 56% (+3 °C) of global cropland. However, potential diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes, offering opportunities for climate change adaptation. These results highlight substantial latitudinal differences in the adaptation potential and vulnerability of the global food system under global warming.
Rapid growth rate responses of terrestrial bacteria to field warming on the Antarctic Peninsula
Ice-free terrestrial environments of the western Antarctic Peninsula are expanding and subject to colonization by new microorganisms and plants, which control biogeochemical cycling. Measuring growth rates of microbial populations and ecosystem carbon flux is critical for understanding how terrestrial ecosystems in Antarctica will respond to future warming. We implemented a field warming experiment in early (bare soil; +2 °C) and late (peat moss-dominated; +1.2 °C) successional glacier forefield sites on the western Antarctica Peninsula. We used quantitative stable isotope probing with H218O using intact cores in situ to determine growth rate responses of bacterial taxa to short-term (1 month) warming. Warming increased the growth rates of bacterial communities at both sites, even doubling the number of taxa exhibiting significant growth at the early site. Growth responses varied among taxa. Despite that warming induced a similar response for bacterial relative growth rates overall, the warming effect on ecosystem carbon fluxes was stronger at the early successional site—likely driven by increased activity of autotrophs which switched the ecosystem from a carbon source to a carbon sink. At the late-successional site, warming caused a significant increase in growth rate of many Alphaproteobacteria, but a weaker and opposite gross ecosystem productivity response that decreased the carbon sink—indicating that the carbon flux rates were driven more strongly by the plant communities. Such changes to bacterial growth and ecosystem carbon cycling suggest that the terrestrial Antarctic Peninsula can respond fast to increases in temperature, which can have repercussions for long-term elemental cycling and carbon storage.
A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit
The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.
Anthropogenic organic aerosol in Europe produced mainly through second-generation oxidation
Exposure to anthropogenic atmospheric aerosol is a major health issue, causing several million deaths per year worldwide. The oxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons from traffic and wood combustion is an important anthropogenic source of low-volatility species in secondary organic aerosol, especially in heavily polluted environments. It is not yet established whether the formation of anthropogenic secondary organic aerosol involves mainly rapid autoxidation, slower sequential oxidation steps or a combination of the two. Here we reproduced a typical urban haze in the ‘Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets’ chamber at the European Organization for Nuclear Research and observed the dynamics of aromatic oxidation products during secondary organic aerosol growth on a molecular level to determine mechanisms underlying their production and removal. We demonstrate that sequential oxidation is required for substantial secondary organic aerosol formation. Second-generation oxidation decreases the products’ saturation vapour pressure by several orders of magnitude and increases the aromatic secondary organic aerosol yields from a few percent to a few tens of percent at typical atmospheric concentrations. Through regional modelling, we show that more than 70% of the exposure to anthropogenic organic aerosol in Europe arises from second-generation oxidation.
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