Mapping the risk of deadly zoonotic disease.
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Pathogens and planetary change
Emerging infectious diseases, biodiversity loss, and anthropogenic environmental change are interconnected crises with massive social and ecological costs. In this Review, we discuss how pathogens and parasites are responding to global change, and the implications for pandemic prevention and biodiversity conservation. Ecological and evolutionary principles help to explain why both pandemics and wildlife die-offs are becoming more common; why land-use change and biodiversity loss are often followed by an increase in zoonotic and vector-borne diseases; and why some species, such as bats, host so many emerging pathogens. To prevent the next pandemic, scientists should focus on monitoring and limiting the spread of a handful of high-risk viruses, especially at key interfaces such as farms and live-animal markets. But to address the much broader set of infectious disease risks associated with the Anthropocene, decision-makers will need to develop comprehensive strategies that include pathogen surveillance across species and ecosystems; conservation-based interventions to reduce human–animal contact and protect wildlife health; health system strengthening; and global improvements in epidemic preparedness and response. Scientists can contribute to these efforts by filling global gaps in disease data, and by expanding the evidence base for disease–driver relationships and ecological interventions.
A systematic review of determinants of breast cancer risk among women with benign breast disease
Benign breast disease (BBD) is associated with heterogeneous breast cancer risk. Identifying key breast cancer risk factors for this population may inform breast cancer prevention or early detection strategies. We systematically searched literature databases PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library to identify studies reporting associations of demographic, lifestyle, reproductive, and radiological factors with risk of breast cancer among women with biopsy-confirmed BBD. 67 studies met eligibility criteria. Variation was observed for study time period, exposure measurement, comparison groups, outcomes, and adjustment for confounders, precluding meta-analysis. The literature suggested positive risk associations for age at biopsy, family history, mammographic breast density, and time since biopsy, and no association for body mass index, alcohol, smoking, age at menarche, and use of hormonal contraceptives. More research is needed to understand risk factor associations among women with BBD, particularly studies that account for heterogeneity within BBD and breast cancer.
Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot
Climate change is a looming threat to marine life, creating an urgent need to develop climate-informed conservation strategies. The Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity was designed to assess the climate risk for marine species in a manner that supports decision-making. Yet, its regional application remains to be explored. Here, we use it to evaluate climate risk for ~2000 species in the northwest Atlantic Ocean, a marine warming hotspot, to explore its capacity to inform climate-considered fisheries management. Under high emissions, harvested species, especially those with the highest economic value, have a disproportionate risk of projected exposure to hazardous climate conditions but benefit the most from emission mitigation. By mapping critical risk areas for 90 fish stocks, we pinpoint locations likely to require additional intervention, such as in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence for Atlantic cod. Finally, we demonstrate how evaluating climate risk geographically and understanding how it arises can support short- and long-term fisheries management and conservation objectives under climate change.
Why do travelers discontinue using integrated ride-hailing platforms? The role of perceived value and perceived risk
Despite integrated ride-hailing platforms have provided many benefits to travelers, there are also various potential risks. This study aims to examine travelers’ discontinuance behavioral intention toward integrated ride-hailing platforms. The research framework was established by extending the theory of planned behavior (TPB) with perceived value and perceived risk. Perceived value was classified into utilitarian, hedonic, and social values, while perceived risk was classified into privacy, performance, security, and financial risks. Additionally, the factors of switch cost and personal innovativeness were included. An empirical analysis was carried out using partial least-squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) based on a survey conducted in Nanjing, China. Furthermore, a multi-group analysis (MGA) was performed to examine behavioral differences across demographic variables. The findings suggest that discontinuous behavioral intention is influenced by subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and attitude. Among them, perceived behavioral control shows the strongest impact (−0.190). Perceived value, including utilitarian, hedonic, and social dimensions, negatively influences discontinuance intention, whereas the four variables of risk perception positively affect discontinuance intention. Notably, social value, performance risk, and privacy risk act higher total effects on discontinuance intention. Switch cost is negatively associated with attitude (−0.222), and positively affects discontinuance intention (0.189). Personal innovativeness has positive and stronger effects on perceived value (0.237), negative effects on perceived risk (−0.174), and negative effects on discontinuance intention. Regarding MGA results, older travelers demonstrate a stronger impact of social value on perceived value, higher-income groups exhibit greater sensitivity to security risks, and frequent travelers prioritize utilitarian value.
Reduced cross-protective potential of Omicron compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2 spike vaccines against potentially zoonotic coronaviruses
The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasised the importance of vaccines and preparedness against viral threats crossing species barriers. In response, a worldwide vaccination campaign targeting SARS-CoV-2 was implemented, which provides some cross-protective immunological memory to other coronavirus species with zoonotic potential. Following a vaccination regimen against SARS-CoV-2 spike in a preclinical mouse model, we were able to demonstrate the induction of neutralizing antibodies towards multiple human ACE2 (hACE2)-binding Sarbecovirus spikes. Importantly, compared to vaccines based on the SARS-CoV-2 Reference strain, vaccines based on Omicron spike sequences induced drastically less broadly cross-protective neutralizing antibodies against other hACE2-binding sarbecoviruses. This observation remained true whether the vaccination regimens were based on protein subunit or mRNA / LNP vaccines. Overall, while it may be necessary to update vaccine antigens to combat the evolving SARS-CoV-2 virus for enhanced protection from COVID-19, Reference-based vaccines may be a more valuable tool to protect against novel coronavirus zoonoses.
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