Present and future limits to climate change adaptation
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Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes
Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food crop production. Analyses of future potential food crop diversity have been limited to a small number of crops. Here we project geographical shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops under 1.5–4 °C global warming and assess their impact on current crop production and potential food crop diversity across global croplands. We found that in low-latitude regions, 10–31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche even under 2 °C global warming, increasing to 20–48% under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% (+2 °C) and 56% (+3 °C) of global cropland. However, potential diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes, offering opportunities for climate change adaptation. These results highlight substantial latitudinal differences in the adaptation potential and vulnerability of the global food system under global warming.
Event triggers and opinion leaders shape climate change discourse on Weibo
Understanding how real-world events and opinion leaders shape climate change discussions is vital for improving communication and policy formulation to meet global carbon mitigation goals. This study analyzed 5.3 million original posts from Weibo (2012–2022), China’s largest social media platform, to examine climate change discourse. We found five event types triggering 48 discussion peaks, including online activities, international conferences, extreme weather, domestic policies, and international news. Posts generally conveyed positive attitudes, though sentiment decreased during haze pollution and the COVID-19 pandemic. Network analysis revealed seven opinion leader groups with distinct strategies: official media and institutions emphasized political will, global initiatives, and socio-economic implications, while universities and grassroots individuals focused on scientific reality and personal actions. Celebrities and unofficial accounts often highlighted geopolitical topics, especially China-US relations. We suggest reducing fragmented echo chambers and fostering personal connections through digital media platforms to enhance public awareness.
Decarbonizing urban residential communities with green hydrogen systems
Community green hydrogen systems, typically consisting of rooftop photovoltaic panels paired with hybrid hydrogen-battery storage, offer urban environments with improved access to clean, on-site energy. However, economically viable pathways for deploying hydrogen storage within urban communities remain unclear. Here we develop a bottom-up energy model linking climate, human behavior and community characteristics to assess the impacts of pathways for deploying community green hydrogen systems in North America from 2030 to 2050. We show that for the same community conditions, the cost difference between the best and worst pathways can be as high as 60%. In particular, the household centralized option emerges as the preferred pathway for most communities. Furthermore, enhancing energy storage demands within these deployment pathways can reduce system design costs up to fourfold. To achieve cost-effective urban decarbonization, the study underscores the critical role of selecting the right deployment pathway and prioritizing the integration of increased energy storage in pathway designs.
Studies on adaptive capacity to climate change: a synthesis of changing concepts, dimensions, and indicators
Adaptive capacity was recognized as one of the critical components of vulnerability assessment in 2001 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Adaptive capacity extends beyond the mere accumulation of resources to encompass the willingness and ability to transform available resources into adaptive actions. In this context, adaptive capacity denotes the ability of social-ecological systems to adjust to the negative effects of environmental change or recovery from it. Hence, enhancing adaptive capacity enriches the ability to cope with a wider spectrum and greater magnitude of climate impacts. Based on the literature review and content analysis, this study explores the foundational concepts of adaptive capacity and further assesses the evolving focus on concept, scale, geographical emphasis, dimensions, and indicators through a systematic review. The findings underscore that adaptive capacity constitutes a multidimensional and interdisciplinary research domain characterized by a range of dimensions and indicators, and diverse methods and techniques at various geographic scales. The study found that adaptive capacity research has predominantly centered on asset-based analyses within the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework in the earlier stage. However, since the past decade, the focus has shifted to indicators like agency, technology, innovation, governance, knowledge, information, and infrastructure, besides climate variability and socio-economic and cultural diversity. It is suggested that to bridge the gap between adaptive capacity and actual adaptation action, policy interventions need to be targeted. The study concludes that, despite abundant research and available literature on climate change and adaptation, there is still a lack of context-specific understanding, particularly from an insider’s perspective in South Asia.
Socio-economic factors constrain climate change adaptation in a tropical export crop
Climate change will alter the geographical locations most suited for crop production, but adaptation to these new conditions may be constrained by edaphic and socio-economic factors. Here we investigate climate change adaptation constraints in banana, a major export crop of Latin America and the Caribbean. We derived optimal climatic, edaphic and socio-economic conditions from the distribution of intensive banana production across Latin America and the Caribbean, identified using remote sensing imagery. We found that intensive banana production is constrained to low-lying, warm aseasonal regions with slightly acidic soils, but is less constrained by precipitation, as irrigation facilitates production in drier regions. Production is limited to areas close to shipping ports and with high human population density. Rising temperatures, coupled with requirements for labour and export infrastructure, will result in a 60% reduction in the area suitable for export banana production, along with yield declines in most current banana producing areas.
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