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Phase transitions of civil unrest across countries and time

Phase transitions, characterized by abrupt shifts between macroscopic patterns of organization, are ubiquitous in complex systems. Despite considerable research in the physical and natural sciences, the empirical study of this phenomenon in societal systems is relatively underdeveloped. The goal of this study is to explore whether the dynamics of collective civil unrest can be plausibly characterized as a sequence of recurrent phase shifts, with each phase having measurable and identifiable latent characteristics. Building on previous efforts to characterize civil unrest as a self-organized critical system, we introduce a macro-level statistical model of civil unrest and evaluate its plausibility using a comprehensive dataset of civil unrest events in 170 countries from 1946 to 2017. Our findings demonstrate that the macro-level phase model effectively captures the characteristics of civil unrest data from diverse countries globally and that universal mechanisms may underlie certain aspects of the dynamics of civil unrest. We also introduce a scale to quantify a country’s long-term unrest per unit of time and show that civil unrest events tend to cluster geographically, with the magnitude of civil unrest concentrated in specific regions. Our approach has the potential to identify and measure phase transitions in various collective human phenomena beyond civil unrest, contributing to a better understanding of complex social systems.

Intercity personnel exchange is more effective than policy transplantation at reducing water pollution

Severe spatial disparities exist in water pollution and water governance. A popular solution is that lagging cities transplant policies from cities with successful experiences. However, environmental governance is more than policies. Merely copying policies from elsewhere may not generate intended effects. Here this research argues that intercity personnel exchange can be a more effective policy instrument than policy transplantation. We provide the first nationwide estimates in China of the effect of intercity exchange of city leaders on water pollution reduction. Using large-scale micro-level datasets on city leaders’ curriculum vitae, firm behaviors, patents and policy texts, we show that intercity exchange of city leaders leads to a 4.78–15.26% reduction in firm-level water pollution, which contributes to 39.45–57.98% of the national total water pollution reduction from 2006 to 2013. Exchanged city leaders facilitate the diffusion of governance experience across cities and the formulation of intercity cooperation. They are also more likely to initiate new policies to support industrial upgrading. Our findings highlight the importance and potential of intercity personnel exchange as a policy instrument for water governance in particular and green transition in general.

Unequal roles of cities in the intercity healthcare system

Cities are increasingly interdependent regarding healthcare provision and demand. However, the intercity healthcare system (IHS) behind the nationwide patient mobility remains insufficiently understood. Here, leveraging human mobility big data, we reveal cities’ roles in providing and demanding quality healthcare within the IHS of China. We find that 8% of Chinese cities are national and regional hubs that address the healthcare shortage of cities deprived of quality healthcare, while 63% of the cities that are unnoticed compensate for migrant workers being denied healthcare rights in megacities. The IHS generates new structural inequalities in healthcare access exhibiting a Matthew effect. The few cities (12%) that are already rich in healthcare resources benefit more and can strengthen their advantages in providing healthcare to local populations (32% of China’s total population). The many cities (35%), while facing healthcare shortages, are further disadvantaged in ensuring adequate healthcare for their local populations (26% of China’s total population).

Failed mobility transition in an ideal setting and implications for building a green city

The mobility sector significantly contributes to the climate crisis, impacting several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as good health (SDG 3), sustainable cities (SDG 11), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). Despite broad consensus on the need for mobility transformation, practical implementation is contentious due to diverse stakeholder interests. Tübingen, a green showcase city in Germany, exemplifies this challenge. Although ideal for green mobility, a tramway project was rejected in a referendum. This case-study highlights that mobility transition is not just a technical issue but a discourse-communicative challenge, emphasising the role of socially embedded narratives. The study aims to explain the referendum’s rejection by analysing discourses, identifying argumentation patterns, and providing insights for future projects. Using Hajer’s Discourse Coalitions approach and Discourse Network Analysis, the study found that the discourse was dynamic and polarised. The pro-tramway coalition’s communication deficiencies and the opposing coalition’s strong narrative connectivity influenced the outcome. Recommendations for effective communication strategies in future projects are provided.

Water and wastewater infrastructure inequity in unincorporated communities

Uneven access to water and wastewater infrastructure is shaped by local governance. A substantial number of U.S. households lack adequate access and the U.S. is one of the few countries with large populations living outside of city bounds, in unincorporated areas. Few studies address how infrastructure services and local governance are intertwined at a regional scale. We examine the connection between incorporation status and access to centralized infrastructure, using negative binomial regression. A novel dataset informs this analysis, comprised of 31,383 Census block groups located in nine states representing over 25% of the national population. We find evidence that inequities in access are associated with unincorporated status and poverty rates. Sewer coverage rates are significantly lower for unincorporated communities in close proximity to municipal boundaries. Infrastructure equity could be improved by targeting high-poverty unincorporated communities, addressing challenges with noncontiguous service areas, and strengthening regional water planning and participatory governance.

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